The national media is filled with stories speculating about President Obama’s likeliest potential nominees for the Supreme Court vacancy created by Justice Scalia’s death. No Third Circuit judges have been mentioned in any of the stories I’ve seen. Does the Third Circuit have any plausible candidates? Here’s a quick look.
Obama has picked five Third Circuit judges: Greenaway, Vanaskie, Shwartz, Krause, and Restrepo. (The three active Third Circuit judges appointed by Bill Clinton are all over 60, probably too old to get a serious look now.)
Let’s start with their ages. Greenaway was born in 1957, Vanaskie in 1953, Shwartz in 1961, Krause in 1968, Restrepo in 1959. Advantage Krause.
How about circuit confirmation votes? Greenway: 84-0, Vanaskie: 77-20, Shwartz 64-34, Krause 93-0, and Restrepo 82-6. Advantage Greenaway and Krause.
Demographics? Greenaway is an African American man, Vanaskie is a white man, Shwartz and Krause are white women, and Restrepo is a Hispanic man. Disadvantage Vanaskie, after that it’s hard to say.
Ability? Look, I practice in this court, so I’m not saying anything stupid here. All five are widely respected, and whether the administration sees any or all as Supreme Court-caliber legal minds is anyone’s guess. And ideology matters but no one knows how yet, so I’ll punt there, too.
I’ve described Judge Krause here before as “a rising star” whose initial published work has been “Supreme-Court-shortlist caliber.” My Magic 8-Ball says she’s the Third Circuit judge likeliest to get the call from a Democratic president. But my hunch is that’s a better bet for the next opening than for this one.
You omitted another interesting (and potentially significant) demographic factor. Judge Greenaway was born in London to West Indian parents. He immigrated to the US at age 2 and is a naturalized citizen. Judge Restrepo was born in Colombia to Colombian parents and immigrated as a teen (iirc); he is also a naturalized citizen.