The news coverage over the past 24 hours has annointed Tenth Circuit Judge Neil Gorsuch as the favorite to be nominated for the Supreme Court by President Trump. I’m skeptical.
Gorsuch is the walking embodiment of the mainline GOP legal establishment: D.C. politico parent, Harvard Law, Scotus clerkship, fancy firm, Justice Department, feeder judge, dazzling writing. When Trump looks at Gorsuch, I think he sees John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh and Merrick Garland.
I think he sees the guy Jeb Bush would beg him to choose.
Jeff Sessions, Sean Spicer, Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Linda freaking McMahon — every one of them is a Johnny Cash middle finger to establishment D.C. Republicans. And now he’s going to pick their darling for the Supreme Court? Anything’s possible, but it seems unlikely to me.
Judge Thomas Hardiman fits Trump’s core us-against-them political narrative in a way Gorsuch never can. The Supreme Court is filled with Ivy League grads and glittering resumes. Hardiman? Just ability and rock-solid conservatism. No Oxford, no Ivy League law degree, no clerkship, no prestigious stable of Scotus clerks, and no rhetorical flash. President Jeb might never have given him a second look: perfect.
The mainstream media all seem to think Gorsuch is the front-runner today. But if the choice really does come down to Gorsuch or Hardiman, I’m betting on Hardiman.